[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to fluctuate on October 16, with broad money (M2) up 8.4% YoY in September.

SMM Nickel October 16 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) According to data released by the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in social financing in the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of September, the outstanding balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% YoY. New yuan loans in the first three quarters increased by 14.75 trillion yuan.

(2) It was reported that the European Union is considering forcing Chinese companies to transfer technology to European companies. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that, as a matter of principle, China supports Chinese and European enterprises in conducting trade and investment cooperation based on market principles to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China opposes actions that violate WTO rules, such as forced technology transfer, opposes interference in the normal production and operation activities of enterprises, and opposes protectionist and discriminatory practices under the guise of enhancing competitiveness.

Spot Market:

On October 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 120,700-123,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-100 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened at 120,810 yuan/mt on October 16. The price edged higher during the session, and as of the midday close, it was reported at 121,090 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.06%.

The risk of a US government shutdown persists, and the escalation of Sino-US trade friction has triggered market risk-off sentiment. The US Fed's policy moves remain a key market focus; although interest rate cut expectations exist, their specific timing and magnitude remain uncertain. Given the weak fundamentals and turbulent external environment, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract referenced in the range of 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.